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The Emerging New World order and Pakistan

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The changing geostrategic Situation warrants that Pakistan must align its Foreign Policy suiting its national interests so that the soft image of Pakistan could be projected worldwide.

So far, Pakistan has done a tremendous job in projecting the positive image and the world including Pakistan’s old ally the US has realized that without Pakistan’s help, it cannot get rid of the Afghan conflict; and it is considering the political solution to the Afghan mess since war tactics have failed miserably given the unstable circumstances of law and order in Afghanistan despite the passage of 17 years of War on terror for so-called quest for regime change.

With the changing world order going from bipolar to multipolar, it could be estimated that After US, Russia, UK, Germany, France, Italy, the new strong powers are born such as the Asian tiger China who have taken the world with great.

Photo Credit : Truthout

On the other hand, the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) has also created a possibility of hybrid war since it is aimed at bringing the economic boom in Pakistan by creating a road and rail network,; Coal powered Energy Projects, Hydel and Energy projects and solar energy projects.

The recent activism of Russia and China playing the role for talks with Taliban has borne fruit and Pakistan played a meaningful and constructive role in bringing the Afghan Taliban to the negotiating table and paved the way for US withdrawal.

The Multipolar status of the world has weakened the world powers and has changed their behaviours from aggressiveness to defensiveness or passiveness.

Furthermore, if we analyze the role of past Super Powers i.e the Soviet Union a, we know that it has helped in use of  chemical weapons in Syria and the crisis has become very serious since the civilians were targeted that resulted in the loss of civilian lives and destruction of  Infrastructure and houses of the people.  Even, Russia had also tried to impose its hegemony in Ukraine It is arguable that how China and Russia may justify this new world order where Americans still mistakenly consider this world as unipolar and continue their influential and aggressive role unabated.  The collapse of the Soviet Union might have created the possibility of a multipolar world with more superpowers making their entry into the power pool despite the existence of earlier players.

The great nations cannot impose their hegemonic doctrines on the basis of military might or economic boom or high GDP growth but they set examples for the world nations to follow.

The great nations inspire the world with their development, not oppression and repression. Great nations like Japan, Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore have achieved their recognition through innovative education systems and knowledge-driven Economy.

Pakistan’s soft image has been appreciated across the globe, especially by regional players like Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, China

But regrettably, the British and The US have carried aggressive and oppressive policies towards the world nations that is why they are facing isolation in the world. The British exit from the Eurozone has crippled its economy owing to repeated failures in the Brexit Deal.

On the contrary, Pakistan has done a lot than expected since Pakistan has conducted various Military Operations against the so-called Taliban, militants and terrorists. Pakistan is already under the heavy influx of Afghan refugees that have affected the law and order situation in Pakistan and economy, especially in Karachi the situation has become worse due to criminal activities of these Afghan refugees.

Despite having the longest border with Afghanistan, it is very difficult to monitor the border and beefing up the security arrangements. Several Pakistani soldiers lost their lives due to suicide blasts during checking of the suspected people entering Pakistani territory.

The US ties with Saudi Arabia are also getting tense after the death of Washington Post Saudi columnist Jamal Khashoggi in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, Turkey.

After much aggression, it is apparent the US wouldn’t like to distance itself from Saudi Arabia on this issue.

On the other hand, China as an emerging and influential player in the new world order has already done the spadework and has implemented its  BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) which also includes multi-billion  CPEC Project in Pakistan and despite rising pressure and opposition from the US, China’s Belt and Road Initiative is probably not going to be affected.

The multipolarity of the world has forced US president Donald Trump to change his stance and engage with Pakistan to bring Taliban insurgent groups to the negotiating table and bringing peace in Afghanistan since  US’s phased withdrawal is linked with the successful dialogue with  Taliban and reaching possible agreement to get rid of the Afghan stalemate.

Pakistan’s present PTI government takes the credit of having crafted and reshaped foreign policy that has already started bearing fruit and Pakistan’s soft image globally has been appreciated by the world especially Afghanistan, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, British, China, US, Russia and others.

The World has appreciated the countless sacrifices laid down by the valiant soldiers and civilians. Pakistan has already done more; it is up to the US and others to do the same since Pakistan’s economy has been crippled due to constantly fighting War on Terror. Pakistan’s positive gesture towards normalization of relations with India after the opening of the Kartarpur corridor has projected soft image worldwide.

China

What will the post-COVID world look like?

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Although virologists have been warning of the risks of a global pandemic since the SARS outbreak in 2003, the world was still mostly unprepared when confronted with the COVID-19 crisis. However, it was also unlucky.

It was unfortunate that the pandemic came in the run-up to a US presidential election that has created an environment as politically polarized as any the country has experienced. As a result, much of the US media coverage of, and debate about, the virus and the global policies needed to deal with its effects have been more about the presidential race rather than the pandemic.

This has obviously had a clear effect on international politics because of the importance of the role of the US and its global leadership.

It was also bad luck that the health crisis came at a time of high tensions between the US and the second largest global power, China, where the virus originated. This further complicated any potential global unified response.

As a result of the global uncertainty, it is difficult to forecast how critical aspects of the crisis, which seems likely to continue for at least another 12 months, will play out in the Middle East, and also what a post-COVID world might look like.

One certainty is that most countries will be forced to shift their focus and resources to domestic matters rather than regional issues.

The virus and the resultant shutdowns imposed to “flatten the curve” of infections have had, and will continue to have, devastating consequences on economies and national budgets. It seems that despite the soft reopening of parts of economies around the world, the current health concerns will prevent a full restoration of business activities for some time, especially if the number of infections and deaths start to rise again after governments relax precautionary measures.

In our increasingly interconnected world, it is difficult to determine whether any country will come out on top economically, and consequently geopolitically, especially given mounting levels of debt.

Countries able to borrow in their own currency seem to be at an advantage; this applies mainly to the US and the EU (if the European countries can unify their policies), and indirectly also explains the current debate in the Gulf about the unpegging of currencies.

Another certainty is that with less money available, wars and proxy wars will become prohibitively expensive and all parties will be forced to scale down their ambitions. As a result, aggression will be reduced and consensus and agreement might be more readily reached. Countries and their allies or proxies who have refused to sit at the negotiation table might now change their minds and mellow, or perhaps even be forced to completely withdraw from conflict zones.

Take Iran, for instance, which has been targeted recently by a successful US policy of maximum pressure. The country is facing problems domestically and, with the added pressure of low oil prices, it will be less able to maintain its financial support to the Houthis in Yemen, the militias in Iraq, and Hezbollah.

Does that mean Tehran will cease its meddling? Nothing is certain but domestic turmoil might force it to do so.

As Iran’s problems have grown, the region has witnessed during the COVID-19 pandemic the emergence of a more assertive Turkey. This has happened despite the fact the country is also suffering economically.

It has been a long time in the making. Turkish involvement has spread to many regional issues beyond its normal national security zone. Its involvement in neighboring Syria is understandable, given that the conflict there directly threatens Turkey’s security. More interesting is the Turkish interest in Libya, where Ankara is pushing for a continued presence with no apparent direct threat or rationale to explain this. This is happening while it also increases political rhetoric that promises continued interference in the domestic affairs of Arab countries in the years to come.

A closer look at the issues reveals that Turkey is focusing its involvement on key points on Europe’s energy routes. This is not surprising, as Europe remains Ankara’s main and constant focus. So, Turkey is now directly competing with Russia — the biggest supplier of gas to Europe — in Syria, where Iran is also strongly entrenched as the country is a key Mediterranean access point for its gas and energy deliveries to Europe.

Turkey is challenging Russia for control of the tap that provides Europe with its energy stability, and this explains its involvement in Libya and other countries. The same logic explains Ankara’s negative reaction to the Israeli-Greek-Cypriot gas-pipeline project, EastMed. This motivates its strategy, as it hopes to leverage it to make more gains in the region.

Therefore, we can expect an increased Turkish focus on the Mediterranean and on supply-chain routes and access points for energy, as well as merchandise being shipped from the East to Europe.

On that point, the land routes of China’s Belt and Road Initiative include one that goes through Russia and another that passes through Turkey. This massive project is also something Turkey is well aware of, and Ankara is striving to ensure it has a presence on key points along the BRI’s Maritime Silk Road. Once again, it is being guided not by national security concerns but a desire to increase its regional clout.

It is difficult to forecast how critical aspects of the corona crisis will play out in the Middle East. 

Khaled Abou Zahr

While Russia and Turkey face off on the ground over an increasing number of issues, it is interesting to note the apparent lack of any direct involvement by the US or China, the two biggest global powers, and, surprisingly, the total absence of European nations, which should be the most concerned about what is happening.

In weighing how global and regional powers will direct their foreign policies and manage existing conflict zones, their own domestic political, economic and social stability will play an important role.

Yet, apparent weaknesses might invite bold moves and dangerous power-grab attempts. This delicate balance will be the key driver for international policies in the coming years. One might say that uncertainty and volatility have spread from the stock-markets to the geopolitical arena.

  • Khaled Abou Zahr is the CEO of Eurabia, a media and tech company. He is also the editor of Al-Watan Al-Arabi.

Courtesy : Arabnews.pk

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US warns of ‘consequences’ if China abandons trade deal

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US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said on Monday he expects China to uphold a trade deal reached with Washington this year, and warned of “consequences” if the country did not.

The comments come amid a sharp drop in global trade caused by the coronavirus pandemic as well as a dispute between the two powers over fault for the spread of the virus, which first broke out in Wuhan, China.

The US and China in January signed an agreement to end a nearly two year-long trade war, that included a commitment by Beijing to buy an additional $200 billion in American goods over the next two years.

“I’m expecting them to meet their obligations,” Mnuchin said on Fox Business Network.

“I have every reason to expect that they honour this agreement and if they don’t, there would be very significant consequences in the relationship and in the global economy as to how people would do business with them.”

Ties strained

However, relations between Washington and Beijing have soured in recent weeks, with US President Donald Trump blaming China for the pandemic, and threatening tariffs.

The US has been hit with tens of millions of layoffs as the virus has spread, significantly weakening the previously solid economy, which Trump was counting on to win re-election in November.

The trade agreement signed in January includes $77.7 billion in additional purchases from the manufacturing sector, $52.4 billion from the energy sector and $32 billion in agricultural products.

The US currently runs a trade deficit with China, and the objective is to realign the trade balance between the two countries.

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Pakistani doctors on forefronts against COVID-19 worldwide: PM

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Islamabad:Prime Minister Imran Khan Saturday said Pakistani health professionals were on the front line in the fight against COVID-19 pandemic worldwide.

On Twitter, the prime minister said Pakistani doctors working abroad also desired to help the government in Pakistan for what a dedicated portal www.yaranewatan.gov.pk has been launched.

The initiative would provide the willing overseas health professionals a platform to register for voluntary services.

According to official portal, Yaran-e-Watan is a joint initiative by the Government of Pakistan and the Pakistani diaspora health communities.

The objective is to facilitate voluntary two-way engagement that addresses the gaps in the health needs of Pakistani people by coupling them with the expertise of Pakistani and foreign health professionals practising abroad.

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