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When stock markets are at odds with the economists

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For those who believe financial markets are completely divorced from economic reality, the past few weeks have thrown up some conclusive proof for their case.

Just a couple of examples illustrate the point. Deutsche Bank has published a survey of the US jobs market showing that over the past four weeks, some 25 million jobs were lost in America as the pandemic-ravaged economy ground to a halt. That is more than have been created since the end of the global financial crisis in 2009.

Another example: Goldman Sachs has calculated that the world’s developed economies — the US, Europe and Japan — will shrink by as much as 35 percent in the current quarter compared to the first three months of the year, which were not exactly buoyant anyway. That is four times the previous record set for economic contraction during the global financial crisis.

Against the background of these figures — cataclysmic by any normal economic standards — the financial markets have been quixotic. The S&P Index, the Wall Street benchmark, last month suffered its biggest one-day fall in more than three decades, in a period of almost consistent declines.

Then, towards the end of the month, the index roared ahead again, with three consecutive days of big rises after the US Congress launched its financial “bazooka” in the form of a $2 trillion support package. President Donald Trump, who lives and breathes by the stock indices, was able to proclaim another triumph.

The S&P is still well off the exuberant levels of mid-February, which was the apex of the Trump bull run, but at least the downward plummet has been halted. Goldman Sachs, the same bank that came out with those awful economic statistics, recently said that stocks were unlikely to go any further, partly because of the “do what it takes” attitude of the Trump administration and Congress.

Goldman’s other reason for some optimism was that the virus curves were beginning to flatten out in some parts of the world, and more economic policymakers — not least Trump — were beginning to talk about when they might hope to open up their economies. The prospect of a complete economic collapse was “precluded,” Goldman said.

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Others pointed to flaws in both arguments. Having fired the big bazooka, the US authorities have little ammunition left to counter a second financial market threat, perhaps from the ballooning market in corporate debt, or some other aspect of the shadow-banking system.

The truly frightening historical perspective comes on calculating when shares finally recovered to pre-Black Monday levels. It was not until 1955, one economic great depression and one world war later.

______Frank Kane

While there have been some encouraging signs that the pandemic is starting to level out, especially in Asia and some European countries, there are huge parts of the world — India, Africa, South America — where there is no or insufficient evidence to make such a call. Large swathes of the global economy could be affected for many months to come.

For financial markets, there is a more immediate danger: Corporate profits for the first half of the year will be catastrophic. Many companies have just gone through the worst quarter of their existence, and profits will be non-existent.

Equity markets still pay great attention to the “price-earnings ratio” which values the shares according to a multiple of the earnings per share. It will be mathematically impossible to determine this when there is no “earnings” value to compute.

Stock markets may comfort themselves by looking to the future, in the hope of a sharp V-shaped recovery towards the end of the year.

But if they look to the past, the perspective is much scarier. In 1929, in the Great Crash — which some experts believe is a more accurate model for our current predicament than the 2008 crisis — shares crashed famously on Black Monday. But they continued falling for another two years, despite lots of little upward blips along the way. The final bottom was not reached until 1932.

The truly frightening historical perspective comes on calculating when shares finally recovered to pre-Black Monday levels. It was not until 1955, one economic great depression and one world war later.

  • Frank Kane is an award-winning business journalist based in Dubai. Twitter: @frankkanedubai
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No nation aspires success sans sacrifices: PM Imran Khan

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Prime Minister Imran Khan has said that without spirit of sacrifice, a nation could not aspire to achieve development as the very human essence had a global significance.

In a message on Eid-ul-Azha 1442 Hijra, the prime minister conveyed his felicitations
to the whole Pakistani nation and the Muslim world.

The prime minister said sacrificing an animal on this holy festival manifested that a person has to sacrifice human desires for the achievement of the highest ideals.

Such a passion generated a quality in humans that would not let them side-track from the right path, he observed.

The prime minister opined that it was the passion which helped the Pakistani nation to save itself from the global coronavirus pandemic with wisdom, national strategy and patience.

The prime minister noted that celebration of Eid-ul-Azha reminded them of the unprecedented and supreme sacrifices of Hazrat Ibrahim (AS) and Hazrat Ismail (AS). Allah Almighty liked their act of sacrifice so much that it was declared an obligation for the rest of the Ummah to perform till the Day of Judgement.

The prime minister further said that economic situation with which the country was confronted, had been changing now.

The country’s economy was put on the right track and as a result of government’s steps, the economic indicators were showing positive trajectory, he added.

The prime minister said through different schemes launched by his government, the people were being provided with relief.

The day was not far, he resolved, when Pakistan would be standing equally in the ranks of developed countries and the whole nation would feel pride among the comity of nations.

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The Development of microfinance industry depends upon the resilience and risk management: SECP Chairman Amir Khan

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Islamabad : SECP Chairman, Aamir Khan emphasized that in these challenging times the development of microfinance industry depends upon the resilience and risk management, achieved through quintessential pillars of liquidity-tapped through private capital and technology embracement. Khan was addressing the Non-Bank Microfinance Companies Stakeholders Forum organized by SECP to devise a way forward and collaborate strategic response to cope the challenges posed by COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing lockdowns.

The SECP Chairman Amir Khan, along with Commissioner Specialized Companies Division, Farrukh Sabzwari chaired the session. Representatives of Pakistan Microfinance Network (PMN), State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), National Bank of Pakistan (NBP), Pakistan Poverty Alleviation Fund (PPAF), Pakistan Microfinance Investment Company Limited (PMIC), Karandaaz Pakistan and multilateral donor agencies including the World Bank, International Finance Corporation (IFC) and Department for International Development (DFID) attended the session.

 The Chairman SECP advised NBMFCs to go far product diversification to insurance solutions and saving products and build capacity of their workforce to attain business development and operational efficiency. He endorsed formation of a working group consisting of nominees from SECP, PMN, PMIC and NBMFCs to further analyze the situation. The working group will also take up the matters with relevant forums including ministry of finance, SBP and multilateral donor agencies for possible solutions.

Khan expressed SECP’s firm commitment to providing all possible support to industry not only during the current pandemic times but also in developing the industry on a strong footing. SECP Commissioner, Sabzwari highlighted the measures taken by SECP to provide relief and flexibility to the NBMFCs and their wholesale lender in managing funding requirements. He also talked about SECP’s advice to NBMFCs to defer and reschedule borrower loans.

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Participants acknowledged SECP’s timely intervention to provide regulatory relief to NBMFCs in managing their credit lines and funding requirements. However, industry representatives expressed their concerns on potential defaults by borrower and liquidity crunch that may lead to capital crisis in the industry.

They raised the need of new money injection into the industry through collaborative efforts of microfinance regulators and the government. Representatives of international donor agencies attending the Forum expressed their resolve to extend fullest possible support to Pakistan’s microfinance sector.    

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Gov’t releases Rs 533.33 billion for various development projects so far

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Islamabad: The federal government has so far authorized release of Rs 533.33 billion for various ongoing and new social sector uplift projects under its Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) 2019-20, as against the total allocation of Rs 701 billion.

Under its development programme, the government has released an amount of Rs 230.3 billion for federal ministries, Rs 175.65 billion for corporations and Rs 43.46 billion for special areas, according to a latest data released by Ministry of Planning, Development and Reform.

Out of these allocations, the government released Rs 38.5 billion for security enhancement in the country for which the government had allocated Rs 53 billion during the year 2019-20.

An amount of Rs 81.37 billion has also been released for the blocks managed by finance division under the government’s 10 years development programme.

Similarly, for Higher Education Commission, the government released an amount of Rs 27.07 billion out of its total allocation of Rs 29 billion while Rs 301.47 million were released for Pakistan Nuclear Energy Authority for which the government had allocated Rs 301.48 million in the development budget.

For National Highway Authority, the government released Rs154.94 billion. Under annual development agenda, the government also released Rs 10.7 billion for Railways Division out of total allocation of Rs16 billion, Rs 7.7 billion for Interior Division, and Rs 8.38 billion for National Health Services, Regulations, and Coordination Division.

Revenue Division received Rs 4.3 billion whereas the Cabinet Division also received Rs 30.18 billion for which an amount of Rs 39.986 billion has been allocated for the year 2019-20.

ALSO READ:  No nation aspires success sans sacrifices: PM Imran Khan

The government also released Rs 26.9 billion for Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) block and other projects out of its allocations of Rs 27.26 billion and Rs 16.54 billion for Gilgit Baltistan (Block and other projects).

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